Al Qaeda: Profile and Threat Assessment

Summary

There is no consensus among experts in and outside the U.S. government about the magnitude of the threat to U.S. national interests posed by the Al Qaeda organization. Virtually all experts agree that Al Qaeda and its sympathizers retain the intention to conduct major attacks in the United States, against U.S. interests abroad, and against Western countries.

In assessing capabilities, many believe that the Al Qaeda organization and its leadership are no longer as relevant to assessing the global Islamic terrorist threat as they were on September 11, 2001. Some believe U.S. and allied counter efforts have weakened Al Qaeda’s central leadership structure and capabilities to the point where Al Qaeda serves more as inspiration than as an actual terrorism planning and execution hub. According to this view, the threat from Al Qaeda has been replaced by a threat from a number of loosely affiliated cells and groups that subscribe to Al Qaeda’s ideology but have little, if any, contact with remaining Al Qaeda leaders. Those who take this view believe that catastrophic attacks similar to those on September 11, 2001 are unlikely because terrorist operations on that scale require a high degree of coordination.

An alternate view is that the remaining Al Qaeda leadership remains in contact with, and possibly even in control of numerous Islamic militant cells and groups that continue to commit acts of terrorism, such as the July 7, 2005 bombings of the London underground transportation system. According to those who subscribe to this view, Al Qaeda as an organization has not been weakened to the degree that some Administration officials assert, and the global effort against Islamic terrorism would benefit significantly from finding and capturing Al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden and his top associate, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Subscribers to this view believe that a coordinated attack on the scale of September 11 should not be ruled out because the remaining Al Qaeda structure is sufficiently well-organized to conduct an effort of that magnitude.

This paper will focus on the Al Qaeda organization and its major affiliates, but not the full spectrum of like-minded Islamist cells or groups that might exist. This report will be updated as warranted by developments. See also CRS Report RL32759, Al Qaeda: Statements and Evolving Ideology.

Conclusion

The assessment of the degree and character of the threat posed by the Al Qaeda organization might suggest strategies for combating it. Those who believe that Al Qaeda as an organization is marginal to the overall global Islamist threat might focus on such policy objectives as addressing regional conflicts, promoting democracy in the Arab world, cooperating with regional governments to prevent terrorism financing and terrorist infiltration, and improving public diplomacy to better explain U.S. policies in the Middle East. On the other hand, some who believe that Al Qaeda remains central to the Islamist terrorism threat might tend to recommend policies that focus on finding, combating, and arresting Al Qaeda leaders and operatives that are still at large. Many believe that, no matter the structure and capabilities of Al Qaeda, stabilizing Iraq will likely be crucial to reducing the recruitment of militants willing to conduct acts of terrorism against the United States and its allies.

Others believe that the Al Qaeda and global Islamic terrorist threat is difficult to assess, no matter how much intelligence is shared and gathered, and that combating Al Qaeda and its affiliates abroad could have only partial success. Those who take this view tend to believe that U.S. counter-efforts should focus more intently on homeland security, stressing such measures as improving airline security, establishing enhanced security measures for passenger train travel, and expanding security of U.S. ports. Some tend to favor additional powers for law enforcement to investigate potential Islamist cells in the United States. The latter suggestions often trigger debate from civil liberties and American Muslim organizations who believe that such measures will inevitably impinge on the civil liberties of Arab and Muslim Americans through profiling and other investigative techniques.

Source:CRS Report for Congress